The two broad considerations governing my move this season are 1) the threat posed by Byzantium, and 2) my need for new provinces and increased cash.
I am invading Trebizond with a small force, and leaving Angora for the Byzantine if he chooses to take it (being unable to muster sufficient force in time to take it myself should he choose to conquor it - he can't stop me taking Trebizond). I am retreating my army out of Tarsus, with the seige engine and some cavalry staying in Armenia to either be a amphibious force against Jerusalem next year or a part of the force which will retake Tarsus if the Byzantine takes it while it is unoccupied. I am also moving three of my four infantry units into Armenia for the possible reconquest of Tarsus or amphibious operations as the situation dictates. I am marching a cavalry force into Antioch to conquor it, this will be able to either attack Jerusalem or Tarsus next year also. My fleet is sailing out of the port in Tarsus, so it doesn't get captured if Tarsus is invaded, and into the Eastern Mediteranean where it provides some cover against amphibious invasion as well as provide us this alternative next year.
I am recruiting a large cavalry force in Edessa, for use to either liberate and protect my own territory or to invade Jerusalem. In Tarsus, I have ordered for a ship building program and the recruitment of skirmishers and some heavy Saracen troops. If Tarsus is not taken, this will provide me with increased capacity for the protection of my own lands and the conquest of either Asia Minor or Mamluke territories in following years.
Ideally, 1324 will see me with an expanded provincial income, with a two pronged assault on Jerusalem iminent. At worst, I will have lost Tarsus and another home territory, and will have to decide about priorities between regaining lost territories and expanding South.
3 hours ago